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分析人士:资产价格驱动将回归基本面

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发表于 2017-3-9 07:29:57 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
分析人士:资产价格驱动将回归基本面

  今年政府工作报告提出,促进金融机构突出主业、下沉重心,增强服务实体经济能力,防止脱实向虚。此外,“拓宽保险资金支持实体经济渠道”也首次写入政府工作报告。

  分析人士认为,银行、证券和保险行业的体制改革更为迫切。商业银行在政府融资平台、房地产平台的“两大平台”业务发展的策略尤为重要,保险资金也将发挥更大作用。货币政策传导渠道的畅通意味着资金将更多流入实体经济,推动资金“脱虚向实”将是政策方向。实体经济融资成本有望进一步降低,资产价格的驱动因素将回归基本面。

  浙商银行经济分析师杨跃认为,对商业银行而言,基于“三农”和小微金融的普惠金融领域会迎来更多的市场关注。一方面,预计农业银行等国有大型银行会在普惠金融业务组织架构上进行较大幅度优化提升;另一方面,在支农支小等领域表现突出的银行将会获得更大的政策红利。

  杨跃认为,在M2预计增速定为12%的约束下,定向降准等差异化支持政策将会起到显著的正向激励作用,也有利于商业银行差异化特色发展。另外,“大力发展绿色金融”既与环境治理、产能结构调整升级相呼应,也为商业银行在“资产荒”背景下提供了潜力巨大的蓝海空间。商业银行在政府融资平台、房地产平台的“两大平台”业务发展策略制定尤为重要。“基础设施投资建设仍是我国经济平稳增长、人民生活水平逐步改善的重要途径,政府资金引导功能不可或缺。商业银行作为资金提供方大有可为。”

  在支持实体经济方面,保险资金也在发挥着长期价值投资者的作用。中国保险资产管理业协会相关负责人对中国证券报记者表示,保险资金将发挥长期资金优势,助力国家基础设施、民生项目和战略实施。未来,保险资产管理行业将坚持长期投资、价值投资、稳健投资、责任投资、创新投资的理念,做好金融市场和实体经济发展的促进者、建设者和稳定者。

  针对如何引导金融资源更多地流向实体经济,分析人士称货币政策相当重要。中银国际证券分析师朱启兵表示,振兴实体经济与防控金融风险,其实质是一个硬币的两面,即资金“脱虚向实”,降低金融领域的杠杆率,使资金更多流向实体经济。

  兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委表示,抑制泡沫是振兴实体的必要准备,而振兴实体是抑制泡沫所要服务的重要目标。要抑制资产泡沫,意味着要引导信用的适度扩张。而振兴实体,则意味着要使金融服务于实体,把握好稳增长与防泡沫之间的平衡。

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